Maybe Savannah U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston underestimated a bit.
He has said 10 candidates will rush into the vacuum created by fellow Republican Saxby Chambliss’ recent decision not to seek a third term next year.
Seven or so congressmen — including Kingston — and about as many current or former other major elected officials already are considering doing so or are widely said to be.
Most of them are Republicans.
If a lot of officeholders do target the Senate seat, that will confound widespread predictions that they mostly would seek re-election — and win — against token opposition.
“Nobody thought much would happen in 2014,” said University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock. “Now we’re going to have a lot to think about. Instead of slam-dunks, we’re going to have a lot of jump-ball scenarios.”
Moreover, electoral shockwaves will ripple throughout Georgia — including Chatham County — as people scramble for posts various would-be U.S. senators abandon.
And, in Chatham and elsewhere, the chain reaction could continue as local politicians seek to move up.
“There definitely could be a domino effect,” said state Rep. Ben Watson, R-Savannah, who acknowledges his seat might be one of the dominoes.
But, for now, all eyes are on Kingston.
Is he in or out?
“If he doesn’t jump, nobody jumps,” said Savannah political consultant David Simons.
Although Kingston’s been overseas on congressional business, he and his son, Jim, have been calling influential Republicans.
“He’s been talking to the right people and saying the right things to show he’s serious, unlike in the past,” Simons said.
As long ago as 1995, Kingston thought out loud about a Senate bid, but never followed through.
Former Savannah GOP state Sen. Eric Johnson, who’s helping Kingston test the waters, said he’s “98 percent” sure his old friend “is in.”
If he is, Johnson, the former senate president pro tem, says he might run for Kingston’s 1st District congressional seat.
“You’ve got to think about it if you care about the future of this country,” said Johnson, who ran a close third in the seven-way GOP primary for governor in 2010.
Simons and others say a Johnson run might shoo away some wannabes.
But don’t expect to hear any more about Johnson’s plans until the congressman spells out his, Johnson said. No date has been set for that, said Kingston spokesman Chris Crawford.
If Kingston runs — and Johnson doesn’t — that likely will trigger a local game of musical chairs.
State Sen. Buddy Carter, who’s long coveted a congressional post, said he’d take a hard look at running in the 1st.
If he does, watch Watson, who says he might seek Carter’s Senate post. And if he does, Chatham County Commissioner Patrick Farrell says he won’t rule out a bid in Watson’s district, which — like Carter’s — is lopsidedly Republican.
Although he compares such a move to “jumping from Triple-A into the majors,” Tybee Island Mayor Jason Buelterman said he, too, is mulling a possible congressional bid.
By this weekend, other scenarios — and names — were wafting through the political chattersphere.
But one major local political figure — state Rep. Ron Stephens, R-Savannah — has sidelined himself from the field of speculation.
“I’m happy where I am,” said Stephens, who chairs one committee and serves on other powerful ones.
He said he’ll do “whatever they need me to do” for Kingston and Johnson if they run.
Dems’ battle uphill?
There’s less speculation by and about Democrats running for the U.S. Senate, Kingston’s seat or for other potential vacancies.
Not that some prominent party figures don’t exude confidence.
Because the U.S. Senate seat will be open, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee says, it will target the race for special efforts.
“Yes, definitely,” said Vincent Fort of Atlanta, a member of the state Senate Democratic leadership, when asked whether the seat is winnable.
“If we have the right candidate, the right strategy and enough money, we will be very strong,” Fort said.
Washington, D.C.-based Democratic campaign consultant Edward Chapman is more cautious.
“We can win,” he said, “if the Republicans screw up by nominating someone who’s too extreme and we have a credible candidate.”
Bullock and Kerwin Swint, a counterpart at Kennesaw State University, say the state’s burgeoning minority population eventually will help Georgia Democrats.
But probably not in time to win next year’s Senate race, they add, citing a decade of dominance by the GOP.
“It’s a few years off,” Swint said of the likelihood of a pendulum swing.
So there’s been no rush to the starting gates.
Fort and others tout Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, but Reed — who’s declared his candidacy for re-election — seems uninterested in the Chambliss seat.
“My personal favorite,” said state Sen. Lester Jackson, D-Savannah, “is Mike Thurmond.”
But former state labor commissioner Thurmond drew only 39 percent of the vote against GOP incumbent U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson in 2010. That was the weakest performance of any statewide Democratic candidate that year.
The Barrow factor
Perhaps the most-often mentioned Democrat is Augusta congressman John Barrow, formerly of Savannah.
About as conservative as Democrats get these days, Barrow raised $2.9 million for last year’s race and won in a district redrawn in 2011 to favor the GOP.
But just as conservative voters usually dominate GOP primaries, liberal voters often do so in Democratic ones. In theory, Swint said, that might make it hard for Barrow to win the nomination.
“But if the Democrats aren’t stupid, they’ll see him as their best chance of winning,” he added.
Chapman agreed and said his party’s voters have been more pragmatic in recent primaries.
In any case, Barrow spokesman Richard Carbo said last week, his boss hasn’t given the race serious thought.
“He’s honored to be mentioned for the seat,” Carbo said, “but, at this point, intends to run for re-election.”
Meanwhile, Democratic interest in a prospective opening for Kingston’s seat is — at best — tepid.
Local Democratic Chairman Will Claiborne says the race could be competitive, noting the voter profile in Kingston’s district is no more Republican than Barrow’s.
“If it’s an open seat,” Claiborne added, “I’m looking for a free-for all.”
But Bill Gillespie, the Democrat who lost to Kingston in 2008, doesn’t buy that.
“It will be an uphill battle for any Democrat,” said Gillespie. “It will be very tough.”
Asked if he might run again, Gillespie replied: “Put me down as a ‘strong probably not.’”
Even though new boundaries added Democratic voters to the district, Kingston took 63 percent of the vote Nov. 6.
His opponent, Savannah businesswoman Lesli Messinger, won’t rule out another try but says whether Kingston stays or leaves doesn’t matter.
Messinger sees a ray of hope: She fared better than other Georgia Democrats opposing incumbent GOP congressmen in 2012.
Two other Democrats — former county commission chairman Pete Liakakis and Jackson — say they might think about running.
If Jackson did, that could trigger a rush among Democrats in his district, which tilts lopsidedly toward their party. And that — like the GOP scenarios involving Kingston and Carter — could create more openings.
Kingston’s prospects
But Kingston has the next move.
Even his supporters think he’s at a slight disadvantage compared to some GOP congressmen from the Atlanta area, home to most of Georgia’s voters.
“It’s a factor,” Watson said, “but it’s not insurmountable.”
Moreover, he added, Kingston grew up in Athens and developed contacts in Atlanta when he stumped there for Johnson in 2010.
Sen. Carter and Bullock cite Johnson’s run as evidence a south Georgia candidate can be competitive.
“If he’d started his big push about two weeks earlier, he would have made the runoff and likely would be governor today,” Carter said.
Bullock said it’s critical that Kingston be the only candidate from south Georgia.
“That could be huge, especially if several candidates split the metro Atlanta vote,” he said.
In 2010, state Sen. Jeff Chapman of Brunswick ran fifth in the GOP primary for governor with 20,636 votes. Without him on the ballot, Bullock said, Johnson would have come much closer to making the runoff against the eventual winner, Gov. Nathan Deal.
Kingston would begin with nearly $1 million in his congressional coffers, which could be re-plowed into a Senate bid.
“That’s a pretty good down payment,” state Rep. Stephens said.
But Rep. Tom Price of Roswell, whom Swint regards as the early favorite, has nearly $1.6 million. And another prospective candidate, Rep. Phillip Gingrey of Marietta, has even more — almost $1.9 million.
Even so, Swint and Bullock said, Kingston can compete strongly.
“The only thing we can be sure of now,” Bullock added, “is that the Senate race and the spinoffs will be a full employment act for political consultants.”