Fast-forward: School’s about to start, beach crowds are thinning and football’s about to kick off.
And in Chatham County and elsewhere, candidates are scrambling to get people back to the polls for Aug. 21 runoffs.
Held when no one is used to voting and few even know they should, such contests require a different kind of campaign.
On Aug. 21, they’ll range from the nationally watched 12th Congressional District race to an east Savannah school board contest.
“They said on TV my opponent won and the election was over,” said Danny Frazier, runner-up on Tuesday in a Savannah-Chatham County school board primary.
But it wasn’t.
His District 2 opponent, Dionne Hoskins, led the three-way race, but failed to win a majority. That triggered a runoff between her and Frazier.
The runoff picture’s murkier in the 12th, where new Republican-friendly boundaries menace incumbent Democrat incumbent John Barrow, recently of Savannah.
State Rep. Lee Anderson was far ahead — but short of a majority — in the GOP primary.
Even though some votes are still uncounted, he’ll be in the runoff.
Augusta businessman Rick Allen ran second and is acting as though he will be. He’s pumped $250,000 more into his campaign and is airing a new TV ad.
But Augusta lawyer Wright McLeod, who was a close third, says he might seek a recount when results are certified this week.
McLeod would have to play catch-up in a short race if — as seldom happens —
a recount changes the
outcome.
Primary leader usually wins
If history’s any guide, Anderson and Hoskins have a leg up, said University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock.
The leader in the primary wins runoffs about 70 percent of the time, said Bullock, who’s written extensively about them.
He and other experts say runoffs demand a different approach than primaries.
Bullock cited two key factors — lower turnout and a campaign that lasts less than three weeks.
“Your first objective,” Bullock said, “is to make sure the people who voted for you in the primary get back to the polls. There is usually a drop off.”
Savannah College of Art and Design political science professor Robert Eisinger agreed.
“Every campaign ought to know who their supporters are and let them know it’s not over,” Eisinger said.
But, especially in local campaigns, said Savannah political consultant David Simons, that’s not always easy.
It’s smarter, he said, to make “extremely targeted” appeals to people most likely to vote.
Voting history and demographic data such as age and race — all public record — can locate such people, Simons said.
Simons recommended that candidates use mostly phones and mailings.
“I wouldn’t spend a dime on TV or radio in a local race,” he said. “You’ll pay too much to reach people who won’t vote.”
Because there’s so little time, he and Bullock agreed, it makes little sense to try of drum up new support.
Two-pronged strategies
But such advice is being at least partially ignored.
“Obviously,” said Scott Paradise, Allen’s campaign manager, “we want to get our people back, and we’ve identified them. We have records of about 45,000 phone calls we made.”
But he acknowledged that, since Allen ran second and turnout could be low, he must do more.
“We’re reaching out to the 65 percent-plus who voted for someone other than Lee and show them the contrast between him and Rick,” he said.
But Anderson also plans to expand his voter base, said his campaign manager, Reagan Williams.
“While we’re focused on getting our supporters back to the polls,” Williams said, “we are also earning new supporters every day.
“We will campaign in every county in the district. One of the most important things to note about Tuesday’s results is that Lee Anderson did well across the entire district. Out of 19 counties, Lee won 13.”
Williams said he didn’t want to discuss the specifics of Anderson’s advertising.
“But we will utilize every available medium to communicate our message,” he added.
School board runner-up Frazier outlined a two-pronged effort that will emphasize neighborhoods where he ran poorly last week.
Those areas will be worked door-to-door; people in those where he did well will get phone calls urging them to vote again, he said.
Joe Murray Rivers, campaign manager for Hoskins, said she’ll focus on getting her primary election supporters to vote again.
“But you also want to go out there for whatever else is left,” Rivers said.
Hoskins cited a local schools slogan, “all means all.” It’s usually applied to students, but she said it should apply to runoff voters, too.
“Every voter in the district, should understand that the results will affect critical decisions the board will make,” she said.
The role of money
The four GOP candidates in the 12th spent nearly
$2 million on the primary and money already is pouring for the runoff.
Congressional candidates may receive contributions of up to $2,500 from individuals for the runoff, even if they gave like amounts for the primary.
Asked how much Anderson had budgeted for the primary, Williams said, “whatever it takes.”
Paradise called Allen’s budget “a moving target,” but noted his loan of $250,000 more to his campaign. That brought the total he’s bet on himself to $540,000.
Hoskins and Frazier can collect up to $1,300 more per donor for the runoff, but it probably won’t matter.
As of June 30, she had spent only $1,835 on her primary campaign; his outlays totaled just $1,191.
“I’m not very worried about money,” Frazier said. “You can do some good things without a lot of it.”